For the second time in less than four months, Abu Muhammad al-Julani, the leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra), intervened on the line of fighting between the factions deployed in the countryside of Aleppo, but this time he reached an advanced stage, by controlling Afrin and its mountains , announcing the formation of a new alliance that includes "Hayat" along with other factions directly linked to Turkish intelligence.
An alliance that is countered by another competing “Islamic” groups that are trying to crystallize, with undeclared US support, in what appears not to be separate from Washington’s tireless efforts to block the steps of opening and normalization between Ankara and Damascus.
Within a few hours, and without violent confrontations, with the exception of some side battles, in which field sources reported that 18 fighters had lost their lives, the “Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham” columns arrived in the city of Afrin, to paint a new scene, which until recently represented one of the nightmares of many factions spread in the countryside Northern Aleppo.
This shift, which this time was prompted by fighting in the northeastern countryside of Aleppo (Al-Bab) against the background of the assassination of an activist and his wife, some factions, led by the Levant Front, tried to exploit it to end the presence of the “Hamza Division” - one of the most prominent groups that recruits fighters For the benefit of the Turkish intelligence to fight outside Syria - to enable al-Julani to expand his areas of control to include Idlib, Afrin and its mountains in the countryside of Aleppo, providing him with additional sources of income, whether through his control of the smuggling crossings, or even by participating in the housing projects that Turkey is working to establish along the border strip.
What is remarkable, in the midst of these developments, is the Turkish silence about them, in what was interpreted as acceptance of the new situation, if Ankara itself had not given the orders to establish it, according to what was leaked by field sources. What reinforces the Turkish “collusion” narrative is that “Tahrir al-Sham”’s incursion comes in light of several transformations, most notably the Turkish turn towards Damascus, which Washington continues to try to counter by all means, political and even on the ground, by seeking to infiltrate the pro-Turkish factions, and to form an umbrella umbrella.
It is under American supervision. Hence, it seems that Ankara hastened the implementation of its project, which it has been developing and marketing over the past two years, in preparation for the unification of its areas of control under the banner of al-Julani, after the latter’s success in “controlling security” and his effective contribution to overcontracting most of the other “jihadi” factions, and opening his prisons to Turkey.
In addition to his role in the “Brick Cities” project to resettle Syrian refugees near the border strip, whether by securing construction operations or participating in them through several contracting companies.
It seems that Ankara has rushed the implementation of its project, which it has been weaving and marketing over the past two years.
The storming of Afrin by "Tahrir al-Sham" was preceded by a series of meetings held by al-Julani with representatives of the factions that had been harassed by the "Syrian Front", most notably the "Sultan Murad Brigade" (an arm of the Turkish intelligence as well), along with the "Hamza Division" and "Ahrar al-Sham Movement". Which witnessed a series of defections against the backdrop of the desire of some of its branches to join the Jolani project, and the inclination of other parties to the “Shamiya” plan to create an entity parallel to “Tahrir al-Sham.” its institutional facade. Despite the availability of the appropriate ground for the continued control of al-Julani over Afrin, and the departure from it to other areas, his stay there may pose a threat to the project of uniting the factions, which Turkey aspires to, which may force "Tahrir al-Sham", according to field sources, to withdraw again to Turkey. Idlib in a fictitious way, after paving the ground for empowering the factions that allied with al-Julani, in addition to signing pledges not to prejudice the man's interests.
Perhaps this constitutes a “satisfactory deal” for Turkey, which can be built upon in later stages to create a unified formation that can be marketed as a representative of the opposition factions, when in fact it is under the leadership of al-Julani from behind the scenes.
It is expected that this will be accompanied by the continuation of the steps of openness to Damascus, especially by opening permanent crossings to return the displaced and refugees, and the passage of aid through the Syrian government to the areas under the control of Turkey, which relieves the latter of the burden of refugees on the one hand, and on the other hand the periodic costs borne by Saleh The factions, which do not include al-Julani, given that the latter managed to achieve a self-financing mechanism based on controlling all aspects of economic life in his areas.