The conflict raged in the Mediterranean, taking advantage of the Russian-Ukrainian war, while the announcement of the Interim Government of National Unity headed by Abdel Hamid al-Dabaiba to sign a memorandum of understanding in the field of energy with Turkey to further complicate the situation.
This memorandum may cancel all efforts made in recent months for rapprochement between Turkey and both Egypt and Saudi Arabia, as well as between Ankara and the eastern flank in Libya. The signing of the memorandum also created new divisions even within the West Wing.
The Turkish-Greek dispute
Diplomats are watching what the corresponding situation will lead to based on the content of the memorandum of understanding, and the question that is expected to be answered remains:
Will Turkey actually send exploration ships to explore for energy resources from Libyan territorial waters to the south of the island of Crete?
Turkey and Greece, so Athens and later Cyprus expressed their concern and called for a tougher stance against Ankara. The origin of the memorandum of understanding is a continuation of a practical translation of what was agreed upon during the era of former Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj, in November 2019, when he signed a memorandum with Ankara on sovereignty over the maritime areas in the Mediterranean, while the eastern Mediterranean is witnessing disputes between its countries over the demarcation of maritime borders.
This is against the background of the evidence of geological studies and the existence of large reserves of oil and gas that can be extracted.
It is not surprising that Libya is caught in the middle of a military and political conflict, and a third over energy is brewing under regional waters, while observers say that Libya will not reap the great economic profit from this conflict.
They see that the Turks are taking advantage of the fragility of the Libyan political system, with the removal of the Minister of Oil and Gas in the government of Dabaiba, Muhammad Aoun, from signing the memorandum, and the presence of Economy Minister Muhammad al-Hawij on his behalf, especially since Aoun was reluctant to sign the agreement.
Ankara interests
Ankara is working to transform Libya into an energy HUB between Africa and Europe to improve its strategic presence, as the signing of this memorandum came with the Dabaiba government receiving a study to establish a gas pipeline coming from Nigeria and passing through Libya.
Ankara is encouraging to go ahead with the project, which is worth 13 billion euros, and could supply Europe with about 30 billion cubic meters of gas annually, according to preliminary estimates. Experts estimate that this amount is nearly double the amount of gas that EU members imported from Russia in 2021.
Its implementation will also provide a powerful alternative to Russian gas, whose dependence has undermined the ability of allies in the old continent to act in the wake of the Ukraine war.
The distance between Nigerian gas wells and European markets is at least 1,000 kilometers shorter than the two gas pipeline projects passing through Algeria and Morocco, which reduces transportation costs, and thus gas prices.
Ankara may persuade Libya to address the security challenges to implement this project, taking advantage of the presence of its forces and military bases in the country, which Moscow views with suspicious eyes, as it reduces its pressure cards on the West, which is thirsty to address the crisis of weak energy supplies as soon as possible.
Russian "Wagner" forces in Libyan oil fields and wells are a source of threat.
Italian presence..French recommendations
Before that, the anchoring of the British landing ship “HMS Albion” in the port of Tripoli, on its first visit to the country in 8 years, sparked widespread controversy in Libya and was described as “exceptional.
Noting that the ship is the most famous offensive warship available to Britain, and it can carry a crew of more than 400 warriors and tens of war machines and armored vehicles, and it can also participate in disaster relief operations.
At the heart of the western moves, the French Senate came out in discontent with what is happening in the Mediterranean, calling on the French forces to raise their presence in the eastern Mediterranean.
The Council also demanded a response to the militarization of international relations in the region, without specifying a specific location, but it devoted part of its report to Libya, explaining that after the end of NATO's intervention in the country in 2011, Libya is witnessing a state of deep security instability, adding that the postponement of the presidential elections that It was scheduled to take place last December, and the fragility of the ceasefire enhances the possibility of continued instability, as “Libya has become a center of jihad, and the number of weapons in circulation has become three times the number of the population,” according to the French Council.
The French report provides an overview of the doubling of military accidents in the eastern Mediterranean, and this is particularly evident in the Turkish military ships’ interception in 2018 of a fuel-exploiting ship off the coast of Cyprus, and other incidents that occurred in the summer of 2020 with the French frigate “Courbet”. It considered that these maritime incidents are added to the recent episodes of the violation of Greek airspace by Turkey.
The report also pointed to the public threat issued by the Turkish President's statements against Greece during the summer of this year, which contributes to the continuation of instability in the eastern Mediterranean and fuels the threat of military escalation.